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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-02-14T08:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-02-14T08:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37332/-1
CME Note: Wide, faint CME seen primarily to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 which appears to be associated with a C6.6-class flare from Active Region 13994 and subsequent eruption seen best in SDO AIA 094 and SDO AIA 304 with notable deflection to the east. Despite the overall weak eruptive signature, triangulation strongly suggests that the eruption is associated with front-sided activity bounded by longitudes -25 to -45.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-16T18:00Z (-6.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-02-14T21:59Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 705
Longitude (deg): 26E
Latitude (deg): 14S
Half-angular width (deg): 25

Notes: 
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 40.10 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-02-15T01:54Z

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